Lower Apple Valley Average Unit Prices Generate More Sales

By Bill Swift
Wiest Realty & Mortgage Co., Inc.

    Data for the first quarter of 2007 suggests a softening in Apple Valley 2-4 unit prices may have helped sales volume. Note the price trends compared to the closing trend:

Average Price Per Unit (Gross Sales/Total Units) Period Apple Valley Hesperia Victorville 1Q '05 $106,419 $114,476 $109,548 2Q '05 $111,219 $113,354 $104,947 3Q '05 $124,963 $125,152 $107,167 4Q '05 $136,574 $122,676 $100,200 1Q '06 $140,790 $126,979 $119,844 2Q '06 $146,207 $144,941 $107,580 3Q '06 $141,643 $140,556 $140,996 4Q '06 $155,542 $151,941 $127,417 1Q '07 $141,508 N/A $135,694

Average Price/BR (Gross Sales/Total # of BR's) Period Apple Valley Hesperia Victorville 1Q '05 $50,754 $51,149 $54,774 2Q '05 $57,086 $61,400 $56,971 3Q '05 $63,353 $61,642 $64,300 4Q '05 $69,471 $61,338 $60,120 1Q '06 $66,219 $66,978 $63,917 2Q '06 $74,704 $74,667 $76,843 3Q '06 $73,993 $69,000 $70,498 4Q '06 $73,196 $73,800 $67,061 1Q '07 $68,673 N/A $69,786

    The data omits new buildings in new subdivisions.  It also omits properties in commercial zones and properties on more than 1.5 acres.  Hesperia had only one 2-4 unit closing per public records, thus insufficient data was available for trend analysis.

5+ Unit Sales Still Off '05 Highs

    The 5+ Units Closing Trend graph depicts Adelanto, Apple Valley, Hesperia and Victorville 5+ unit sales as a group.  Although Gross Income Multipliers have dropped slightly for sold properties.  List prices based on Gross Income Multipliers have remained relatively high.



    Prices based on Gross Income Multipliers (GIM) have improved for buyers.  The GIM equals the sale price divided by the gross income at the time of the sale.  The following data shows GIM's dropped slightly.

    Note the drop in GIM's for '07.  We found no sales in Victorville or Adelanto in the first quarter of '07.

City Avg. GIM for sold projects for all of '05 Avg. GIM for sold projects for all of '06 Avg. Sale Price at end of 1st Qtr '07 Adelanto N/A 11.89 N/A Apple Valley 12.29 13.01 11.97 Hesperia 10.55 12.15 9.76 Victorville 10.90 12.04 N/A

City Avg. List Price at end of 2nd Qtr. '06 Avg. List Price at end of 4th Qtr.'06 Avg. List Price at end of 1st Qtr '07 Adelanto 10.82 10.99 11.86 Apple Valley 13.82 12.74 13.22 Hesperia 13.16 14.26 14.20 Victorville 13.02 14.02 13.17

    Part of the reason for low sales volumes may stem from relatively high list prices based on GIM's.

    The levels of prices per unit based on average unit size were only slightly lower in the first quarter of 2007, suggesting investors still favor large units.  The red line represents data for all of 2006; the blue line depicts data for the first quarter of 2007.



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