Desert Investor Quarterly, High Desert Market Conditions   ·   Newsletter Archive
Desert Investor Quarterly - Wiest Realty & Mortgage Co., Inc.
VOL VI   ISSUE 1 Winter 2010

Single Family Leveling Trend Continues in Spite of Looming Shadow Inventory & Record Foreclosure Filings

By Bill Swift
Wiest Realty & Mortgage Co., Inc.

Market Conditions Show Improvement (For Now)

High Desert single family supply figures continued their 2nd quarter downward trend in spite of record California foreclosure filings. California default notices were down 51% in September from August. However, this is likely due to a new law which requires lenders to contact homeowners at least 30 days prior to serving default notices.

Closing volume for 2 to 4 unit projects continued generally upward with low prices being paid per unit. However, price increases generally follow volume increases.

The big concern is looming supply. Many sub-primes have not been foreclosed yet due to delays in re-sets, slow processing by lenders and government programs. Also, Alt-A loans are a larger percentage of the default group and a large portion of re-sets are scheduled between 2010 and 2011. Lenders’ reluctance to write down principle may just prolong the agony. Option Arm re-sets are still a factor per the Credit Suisse chart below. Of course, most of the loans at the peak below are in California.

Single Family Median Price And Volume Trends

Unemployment is usually considered a lagging indicator, however, the up tick in median prices closely coincides with the downturn in unemployment figures.

Supply continued its general decrease until the last month of the 3rd quarter when supply rose slightly to 1.7 months. Single family sales volume also dropped from 2nd quarter levels as the supply curve leveled out.


Single Family Asking Rents
We’re finding many single family investors are not privy to single family rent levels and tend to over estimate attainable rents. We track rents monthly and find many initial asking rents are unrealistic. Below is an asking rent distribution for Victorville. There isn’t much change in the curve from May ’09 to September ’09, however, the latter sample is smaller suggesting supply is being absorbed.

2-4 Unit Closings Continue Upward Trend

Apple Valley sales volume reached 3Q ’06 levels, however, the average price per unit for 3Q ’09 was about 75% less than the 3Q ’06 figure of $141,643. We noted that pending data indicates higher unit prices going into Q4 ’09. Prices generally rise with sales volume.

5+ Unit Market Still Needs Life Support
Sales volume is pathetic due to a lack of lenders in the area and high asking GRM’s.

Unemployment Rate Eases but...
The area unemployment rate dropped in September but job losses continued. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.

Short Sales For Struggling Owners
By: Ted Grose, CEO First Mortgage Advisors

Lately, we’re finding lenders are more receptive to short sales on non-owner properties. They’re not easy. They require constant contact, attention and patience.

Some advantages of a short sale over a foreclosure are:

• Short sales are a little easier on your credit in that a foreclosure is a matter of public record. A short sale deficiency is not public record thereby helping the borrower to avoid the stigma of a
foreclosure. However, many experts agree that when it comes to your credit, the seller will probably take an immediate 200 to 300 point FICO score hit.

• If you’re an investor, most non-owner loans in California are recourse loans. In many foreclosure scenarios, the lender can go after the seller for a deficiency. In a short sale, there is generally an agreed pay-off amount saving the borrower from a deficiency.

• The seller has more control over the sale process in a short sale.

• With a short sale, you will be eligible, under Fannie Mae guidelines, to buy another home in 2 years instead of 5 to 7 years.

• According to About.com Guide to Home Buying / Selling, “If your credit report does not reflect a 60-day+ late pay, under Fannie Mae guidelines, you will be eligible to buy another home immediately.”

You can’t just ask for a short sale and get it. You must prove your hardship to the lender. Among other things, the lender will require a hardship letter, financial statements, tax returns, and
pay stubs. For more info: Ted@1stMortgageAdvisors.com

Contact Pam Wiest at Pam@WiestRealty.com or (805) 218-7227

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