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Single Family Leveling Trend Continues in Spite of Looming Shadow Inventory & Record Foreclosure FilingsBy Bill Swift Market Conditions Show Improvement (For Now) High Desert single family supply figures continued their 2nd quarter downward trend in spite of record California foreclosure filings. California default notices were down 51% in September from August. However, this is likely due to a new law which requires lenders to contact homeowners at least 30 days prior to serving default notices. Closing volume for 2 to 4 unit projects continued generally upward with low prices being paid per unit. However, price increases generally follow volume increases. The big concern is looming supply. Many sub-primes have not been foreclosed yet due to delays in re-sets, slow processing by lenders and government programs. Also, Alt-A loans are a larger percentage of the default group and a large portion of re-sets are scheduled between 2010 and 2011. Lenders’ reluctance to write down principle may just prolong the agony. Option Arm re-sets are still a factor per the Credit Suisse chart below. Of course, most of the loans at the peak below are in California.
Single Family Median Price And Volume Trends Unemployment is usually considered a lagging indicator, however, the up tick in median prices closely coincides with the downturn in unemployment figures.
Supply continued its general decrease until the last month of the 3rd quarter when supply rose slightly to 1.7 months. Single family sales volume also dropped from 2nd quarter levels as the supply curve leveled out.
Single Family Asking Rents
2-4 Unit Closings Continue Upward Trend
Apple Valley sales volume reached 3Q ’06 levels, however, the average price per unit for 3Q ’09 was about 75% less than the 3Q ’06 figure of $141,643. We noted that pending data indicates higher unit prices going into Q4 ’09. Prices generally rise with sales volume.
5+ Unit Market Still Needs Life Support
Unemployment Rate Eases but...
Short Sales For Struggling Owners Some advantages of a short sale over a foreclosure are:
Contact Pam Wiest at Pam@WiestRealty.com or (805) 218-7227
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